Global Warming……

22 Jan

A Global Industry……

I the 1960s scientists were debating a very different proposition from the current mainstream model of global warming.  At that time it was thought that the world may be headed toward an ice age which proved to be unfounded but was based on the scientific data available to them at that time, remembering of course the lack of easy access to computing power.

In contrast global warming does have access to technology alongside a far greater community of contributing science, not all of which advocate the theory as unquestionably proven.

One unquestionable difference between the science of the 1960s and the current status quo is the worldwide corporate interest and profitability of global warming.  Seminars are often attended by 15,000 delegates.  Technology companies such as Siemens have invested significant amounts of money in the development of alternative ‘green’ energy generation and, as one researcher once told me, providing your grant application contains the worlds ‘to study the effects on climate change’, you are far more likely to receive funding no matter how unconventional the subject matter of your research, its attachment to climate change is a prerequisite for funding.

Worldwide, the Global Warming Industry employs hundreds of thousands of people and was valued at $615 billion in 2008……

Isn’t Global Warning a Fact……

No, I don’t believe it is.  There are many, many variables involved and, not unlike weather forecasting, it is so complicated that any scientist who is being completely honest cannot say categorically that global warming is a man made fact or give any definitive reason for its cause.  As an example of the sort of data that appears to defy the reasoning, the UK has shown a drop in average temperature from the 1950s to the 1990s, a period when the use of fossil fuels in power generation and transport increased substantially.  The Little Ice Age followed the Medieval Warm Period when fairs where held on the River Thames in the former and Vineyards thrived in the north of England in the later.

The correlation seized upon by Al Gore between the link shown in the ice core data between temperature and CO2, where the graphs appear to line up perfectly has been discredited.  Upon detailed analysis the link is unquestionable, however, the CO2 increase follows the temperature increase which, for Mr Gore’s thesis, is completely back to front.

There is a far closer relationship between global temperatures and Sun Spot activity than with many other variables……

The Jury is still out……

Undoubtedly, humankind cannot continue to power its existence with fossil fuels, not least due to the limited supply.  However, the current drive to install wind farms is not a viable option.  There are numerous problems with wind generation.  When there is no wind there is no power and to replace our demands with wind turbines alone is quite simply unachievable no matter how many you build.  It is one of the examples where government subsidies and tax breaks have helped to create an industry.

The many other alternative ways of generating power are still in their infancy with the exception of Nuclear Power Stations which, although Carbon neutral, produce waste which is dangerous for hundreds of thousands of years.  Whilst generating nuclear power is relatively safe, as the Japanese found recently, you cannot plan for every eventuality whether natural, human error or terrorism.  Add into this equation the fact that the energy companies have been dragging their feet, unwilling to invest without subsidies, without planning permission and apparently happy to continue making large profits from burning fossil fuels, even if we started to build new stations tomorrow it would be at least 10 if not 15 years before they come on line.

If you accept the premise that we have a limited amount of time to act before we reach the point of no return,  we are not in a position to change in time and most of our costal cities will disappear, starvation will become even more widespread and the human race may cease to end within 200 years, although some would argue this would be a better overall solution……

In Conclusion……

Until the scientific community reach a consensus on what is causing global warming and, if it is something we can address, a consensus on how to do it, I believe the jury is still out.  It is not a popular point of view and one can feel like a holocaust denier for even raising the issue but I’ve never shied away from controversy.

Then there is the problem of economic interests.  Frankly, I doubt that the board of directors of the energy companies and the politicians and lobbyists give a monkeys providing they are returning healthy profits.  Similarly, they will play ball with idea when there are substantial tax incentives to be had from being ‘green’.

Not unlike the industry, academia has a stake in the whole issue.  Where it proved wrong, half of the scientists in the country would be out of a job so they have an interest in prolonging the debate, even if failing to prove anything.

In the past 4.5 billion years this rock we call home has gone through immense changes in temperature, mixture of atmospheric gasses, extinctions, etc.  It is an interesting fact that 99% of all the species that have ever lived on this diverse planet are now extinct.  The ape at the top of the evolutionary tree is in some ways arrogant to think that it should, could or will be able to tame the forces of nature……

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